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NEWS
:
Morgan Poll :
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4290/
Now Only 45% of Australians Want a Republic with an
Elected President (Down 6% Since 2001)
| Finding No. 4290 - May 07, 2008 |
In early May 45% (down 6% since Feb. 2005) believe Australia should
become a Republic with an elected President, while 42% (up 2%) support
Australia remaining a Monarchy and 13% (up 4%) are undecided — according
to a special Morgan Poll of Australians taken last weekend (May 3/4,
2008).
Support for a Republic with an elected
President is the lowest since (then) Prime Minister Paul Keating raised
the issue nearly 15 years ago in December 1993.
However, if Prince Charles were crowned
King, only 32% would want to continue with the Monarchy. The majority,
56% (down 5% since 2005) of Australians would want a Republic with an
elected President and 11% of Australians couldn’t say.
Analysis by voting intention shows a
clear majority of ALP supporters (58%) want a Republic with an elected
President compared to only 30% who would prefer to continue with the
Monarchy. Among L-NP supporters only 29% want a Republic with an elected
President compared to 60% who would rather continue with the Monarchy.
Greens supporters strongly favour a
change to a Republic with an elected President (59% cf. 28%).
Family First supporters are most
committed to the Monarchy with 78% supporting Australia continuing as a
Monarchy, compared to only 22% who support a Republic with an elected
President.
Gary Morgan
says:
“Despite the
discussion generated at the recent 2020 Summit on Australia’s
future, Australians’ support for becoming a Republic with an elected
President has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 15 years.
“Roy Morgan ‘Issues Research’ due to
be released next week at the Future Summit shows Australians are
more concerned with economic and environmental issues than they are
with symbolic issues involving changes to the Australian
Constitution that has worked well for over a century.
"What would please the Monarchists is
64% of those aged 14-17 say Australia should remain a Monarchy, with
23% supporting a Republic and 13% undecided."
“Kevin Rudd and his “Republican”
colleagues should forget about changing the Constitution over the
next few years and concentrate on making sure working Australians
can “survive” with higher interest rates and higher prices.”
This special Morgan Poll
was conducted by telephone last weekend, May 3/4 2008, with an
Australia-wide cross-section of 650 Australians.
Australians were asked: “In your opinion, should Australia remain
a MONARCHY — or become a REPUBLIC with
an elected President?”
Those who said Monarchy or were undecided were asked: “If Prince
Charles were to be crowned King, in your opinion, should Australia
remain a MONARCHY — or become a REPUBLIC
with an elected President?”
Q1. Should Australia remain a Monarchy?
All Australians aged 14
and over were asked: “In your opinion, should Australia remain a
MONARCHY — or become a REPUBLIC with
an elected President?”
| |
Total Respondents |
| |
Jun |
Oct |
Dec |
Apr |
Aug |
Jan |
Jan |
Jul |
Jul |
Mar |
Apr |
Dec |
Nov |
Jul |
| |
1953*
|
1969*
|
1975
|
1977
|
1981
|
1983
|
1984
|
1988
|
1991
|
1992
|
1993
|
1993
|
1994
|
1995 |
| |
%
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
%
|
% |
% |
|
Monarchy |
77 |
64 |
61 |
62 |
59 |
60 |
62 |
64 |
56 |
49 |
38 |
48 |
40 |
39 |
|
Republic |
15 |
24 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
28 |
30 |
29 |
36 |
44 |
52 |
44 |
50 |
49 |
|
Undecided |
8 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
8 |
7 |
8 |
7 |
10 |
8 |
10 |
12 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
*
Electors 18+
| |
Total Respondents |
Aged 18+ |
|
| |
Jun |
Sep |
Dec |
Feb |
Nov |
Mar/Apr |
Feb |
May 3/4 |
Total |
|
Non- |
Aged |
| |
1996 |
1997 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2005 |
2008 |
18+ |
Electors |
electors |
14-17 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Monarchy |
42 |
37 |
38 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
42 |
46 |
64 |
|
Republic |
47 |
53 |
51 |
52 |
54 |
49 |
51 |
45 |
46 |
46 |
36 |
23 |
|
Undecided |
11 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
12 |
9 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
18 |
13 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
Total Electors |
Analysis by State |
| |
Dec 1997/ |
Nov |
Mar/Apr |
Feb 16/17 |
May 3/4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Feb 1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2005 |
2008 |
NSW |
Vic |
Qld |
SA |
WA |
Tas |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Monarchy |
38 |
39 |
40 |
40 |
42 |
45 |
37 |
51 |
37 |
40 |
43 |
|
Republic |
51 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
46 |
42 |
48 |
37 |
57 |
50 |
46 |
|
Undecided |
11 |
7 |
11 |
8 |
12 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
6 |
10 |
11 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
|
Total Respondents |
Total Respondents |
Aged 18+ |
| |
Feb 16/17 |
May 3/4 |
Electors (By Party Vote) |
| |
2005 |
2008 |
Electors |
ALP |
L-NP
|
Greens |
Family
First |
Others |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Monarchy |
30 |
33 |
42 |
30 |
60 |
28 |
78 |
45 |
|
Republic |
61 |
56 |
46 |
58 |
29 |
59 |
22 |
37 |
|
Undecided |
9 |
11 |
12 |
12 |
11 |
13 |
- |
18 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Q2. Should Australia remain a Monarchy if Prince Charles
were crowned King?
Respondents who answered ‘Monarchy’ or ‘Undecided’ in Question 1 were
then asked: “If Prince Charles were to be crowned King, in your
opinion, should Australia remain a MONARCHY - or become
a REPUBLIC with an elected President?"
The following table shows that of all
people surveyed, only 33% would support a Monarchy with Prince Charles
as Head of State.
|
|
Total Respondents |
Total Respondents |
Aged 18+ |
| |
Feb 16/17 |
May 3/4 |
Electors (By Party Vote) |
| |
2005 |
2008 |
Electors |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Family
First |
Others |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Monarchy |
30 |
33 |
32 |
22 |
46 |
18 |
78 |
37 |
|
Republic |
61 |
56 |
57 |
68 |
43 |
69 |
22 |
48 |
|
Undecided |
9 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
13 |
- |
15 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Margin of
Error
The following table gives indications of
the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall,
expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual
estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and
weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office + 61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +
61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile
+61 411 129 093
|
